GIS Saves NYC and the man behind it

The Crime Fighter: Fighting Crime with GIS

Who better to know about connections than a GIS professional whose very job is discovering them? But, weaving a thread through time from decades ago isn’t a typical geospatial connection, but this one is and it is connected by a person. The historical significance of his impact is obscured by political infighting and the myopic media to the point we are all prisoners trapped by current events — knowing neither where we came from nor where we are going. So, let’s all take a collective breath and reflect for a minute about who we are as a profession and how we, the geospatial community has made the world a better place. Let’s also take a moment to learn about one of the leaders who led the way and what he had to overcome to help us appreciate who and what we are. It is an oft repeated refrain: “those who do not know the past are condemned to repeat it”; and, my personal favorite, “the future flows through us becoming the past so that we remember it and do not repeat it.” Thus, focus on the task at hand and ignore all the squabbling and noise. It is a mere distraction. Take heart friends and colleagues, this administration is well aware of the benefits of GIS beyond just knowing geopolitical boundaries. Indeed, President Trump’s White House understands the power of geographic information systems. The connection runs deep.

In 1960 a United States spy plane was shot down over the Soviet Union putting the two world leaders, President Dwight D. Eisenhower and Premier Nikita Khrushchev head to head against each other on the world stage in a show trial ending with the imprisonment of Captain Francis Gary Powers, the captured pilot of the downed U-2 spy plane. Our nation’s ego hung in the balance. The U.S., proud and victorious, commanded by President Eisenhower, former General of the Allied Forces being disgraced in a one-sided trial. During the Cold War everyone knew unethical things were done, but they were to be done in secret. The shame was not that it was done, but that it was discovered. It was, perhaps, President Eisenhower’s and the nation’s lowest moment since the end of WWII up to that point. That same year Richard Nixon, President Eisenhower’s Vice President, lost the election to John F. Kennedy, the Senator from Massachusetts. The spy plane incident probably played a role. It doesn’t have to be right; it just has to be done right, because in America political forgiveness is a pretense. America was weary of the political charade and needed a diversion. That year the greatest national pastime was born. The Green Bay Packers under Coach Vince Lombardi won the first ever Superbowl. The Beach Boys, the Doors, Janis Joplin and Aretha Franklin filled the air; while at home, families gathered around the television to watch Dragnet, Lassie, Twilight Zone and The Honeymooners, and theater goers lined up for Spartacus and Psycho. No one but a tiny few had yet heard of Vietnam. America was peaceful. Only one in 500 people were a victim of violent crime and most all of that crime was in the larger cities.

Then, something changed. In 1961 just as President Kennedy was taking the oath of office, crime did too. The trend climbed throughout Kennedy’s Presidency and continued climbing throughout Presidents Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, and Bush. Crime became a top political issue, whereas, 30 years prior one person in 500 was a victim of violent crime it had increased almost four times that much. People lived in fear, especially in big cities. New York captured many of the nation’s headlines in a long, tragic list of brutal, horrible crimes. Hope was bleak. It was expected to get worse. But, it didn’t. The fever had broken. It peaked in 1991. The crime spree lasted 30 years. By contrast, the Vietnam War lasted 20 years. The total number of troops serving on active duty during Vietnam was 9.1 million troops and 58,318 lost their lives in combat, yet, more people died on the streets of America during the same period. In fact, on average, during the 30 year crime wave every 22 days the number of victims of violent crime in the United States equaled the total number of soldiers killed in Vietnam. America was a battlefield and ground zero was New York City.

Why did crime peak in 1991? What happened? What stemmed the tide?

A new type of hero emerged, a crime fighter, unlike any before.

It began in Ground Zero, in the most dangerous areas of New York City — the subways, referred to as the “caves”. Thugs, rapists, murders and thieves roamed the depths. Police could do little. They were outnumbered and operated under strict rules. It was preferable to be a regular Police Officer, above ground, dealing with routine crimes, even the murders, rather than be a Transit Cop covering a beat in the dark, rough, unforgiving underworld of the subway. Only four types of people dwelled there: criminals, victims, Transit Cops, and those who got away. Sometimes, Transit Cops or criminals were the victims. Transit Cops were difficult to recruit but New York needed more of them. This provided an opportunity for those with few other choices. Sometimes, those who have no other options are the ones who make the most of an opportunity. They work the hardest because it is their only way out. Success lies with the willing — those incendiary hearts waiting to be ignited by a challenge that gives them purpose. Life is too often fraught with peril and strife. It is vision and the courage to pursue it that manifests dreams into reality.

This new hero didn’t fit the caricature. He was short, balding, overweight and no high school diploma. He was street smart, cocky, unpolished, and would rather fight than prove his point. He didn’t come from a privileged background. He just had his wits. He knew right from wrong and had the courage to stand his ground. He took on the criminal element lurking in the subterranean worlds. He worked hard earning his GED at night. It served him better that way like a badge of honor, the hard way being its own reward. His name was Jack Maple, the crime fighter, and he understood the streets in ways others didn’t. He knew, like a hunter knows, to find the deer find their trails. Animals are creatures of habit. They prefer to stay where they know the area, the smells, the rhythms, the sounds, where the food is, and where to run for cover. Criminals measure their risks too. They prefer familiar places. They are territorial and keen to their surroundings. Jack knew if you find their patterns you’ll find them. He covered his walls with subway maps placing pins where and when the crimes happened. The criminal’s habits and behaviors began taking shape. With this knowledge Jack had become the hunter. Knowledge is power, but real power is action and Jack took it. He would not have become the hero otherwise. He staked out their patterns of place and time setting traps and luring them in with their weaknesses. One by one, and group by group he reclaimed New York’s subways. Crime dropped by 69% over the next five years. Putting that in perspective, two of every three victims were spared. Unfortunately, 629 people were still murdered in New York City, but it was a drastic departure from the peak of 1,946 just five years before, meaning 1,317 men, women and children did not suffer a violent crime that year or any other year thereafter.

The Mayor of New York recognized the value of what Jack had developed. Jack called his maps the Charts of the Future. His colleagues called it wallpaper. The Mayor called it amazing and gave Jack Maple his full support praising him saying, “One of the truly great innovators in law enforcement, who helped make New York City the safest large city in America”. Jack Maple was promoted to Deputy Police Commissioner of Crime Control Strategies. He founded CompStat, Computerized Statistics, calling it his electronic pin maps to support his four precepts: accurate and timely intelligence, rapid deployment of forces, effective tactics, and relentless follow-through. CompStat changed policing to a data driven business. GIS professionals will recognize CompStat as a geographic information system, and Jack as a self-trained geospatial developer and analyst. Geospatial science was still a very niche technology at the time. The Mayor of New York who recognized the value of what Jack had developed and supported his success was Rudy Giuliani.

CompStat would be further developed with more advanced crime mapping and crime analysis methods, predictive analytics, environmental criminology, and geographic profiling. Dr. Kim Rossmo coined the term geographic profiling, based on his patented Rossmo Formula, which is a form of predictive analytics that takes location, time, social behavior and the psychology of criminals into account and turns it into a mathematical equation that can be fed into a GIS. This narrows down the probable location of a suspect allowing investigators and police to better focus their resources. Geographic profiling was used during the DC Sniper case. The Rossmo Formula was featured on the TV series Numb3rs. I hope to write a future article on Dr. Rossmo complete with interviews.

The trend in crime has continued decreasing ever since the peak in 1991. Crime in New York City has now dropped back to 1940 levels as of 2017 and continues to decline.

The power to change the world lies with those fervent, intrepid souls — the unrelenting dreamers, who seek a better world and through innovation, creativity and courage manifest it into reality. It is a great time to be in the geospatial profession. The United States leads the world in geospatial science. Take heart because opportunities abound in this industry. I hope you become a hero in the field and someday I have the opportunity to write about you.

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